Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 136,478
2 South Dakota 134,153
3 Rhode Island 131,729
4 Utah 120,985
5 Tennessee 117,717
6 Arizona 116,158
7 Iowa 112,376
8 Oklahoma 111,232
9 Wisconsin 110,076
10 Nebraska 109,869
11 Arkansas 109,768
12 South Carolina 108,338
13 Alabama 105,464
14 New Jersey 105,124
15 Kansas 104,866
16 Indiana 103,313
17 Mississippi 102,932
18 Idaho 102,019
19 Illinois 99,852
20 Delaware 99,414
21 Nevada 99,237
22 Montana 98,682
23 New York 98,540
24 Georgia 98,215
25 Wyoming 97,828
26 Florida 97,349
27 Kentucky 96,978
28 Texas 96,969
29 Louisiana 96,144
30 Missouri 95,899
31 Minnesota 94,108
32 Massachusetts 94,018
33 California 93,266
34 New Mexico 91,935
35 Connecticut 89,117
36 North Carolina 88,603
37 Ohio 88,013
38 Alaska 86,892
39 Pennsylvania 82,447
40 Colorado 82,125
41 West Virginia 80,356
42 Michigan 78,673
43 Virginia 73,528
44 Maryland 69,345
45 District of Columbia 64,093
46 New Hampshire 63,623
47 Washington 49,012
48 Puerto Rico 45,041
49 Oregon 39,757
50 Maine 38,889
51 Vermont 32,649
52 Hawaii 21,526

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 580
2 Rhode Island 407
3 New Jersey 388
4 Connecticut 352
5 New York 350
6 Pennsylvania 307
7 Alaska 263
8 New Hampshire 260
9 Minnesota 259
10 Vermont 250
11 Delaware 249
12 North Carolina 233
13 Massachusetts 231
14 Colorado 225
15 Tennessee 217
16 Florida 214
17 Illinois 202
18 Maine 200
19 Idaho 187
20 Maryland 187
21 North Dakota 173
22 West Virginia 168
23 South Carolina 163
24 Virginia 145
25 District of Columbia 142
26 Iowa 142
27 Nebraska 138
28 Ohio 136
29 Washington 125
30 Wisconsin 122
31 South Dakota 120
32 Montana 117
33 Texas 116
34 Indiana 112
35 Louisiana 106
36 Georgia 99
37 Wyoming 99
38 New Mexico 98
39 Oregon 95
40 Puerto Rico 86
41 Utah 84
42 Oklahoma 83
43 Nevada 79
44 Missouri 77
45 Arizona 75
46 Kentucky 73
47 California 58
48 Hawaii 54
49 Kansas 42
50 Mississippi 39
51 Alabama 33
52 Arkansas 32

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,780
2 New York 2,582
3 Massachusetts 2,515
4 Rhode Island 2,484
5 Mississippi 2,376
6 Arizona 2,335
7 Connecticut 2,224
8 South Dakota 2,190
9 Louisiana 2,188
10 Alabama 2,172
11 Pennsylvania 1,975
12 North Dakota 1,967
13 Indiana 1,943
14 New Mexico 1,889
15 Arkansas 1,873
16 Illinois 1,868
17 Iowa 1,849
18 South Carolina 1,787
19 Georgia 1,756
20 Tennessee 1,737
21 Michigan 1,735
22 Nevada 1,719
23 Kansas 1,691
24 Texas 1,688
25 Delaware 1,609
26 Ohio 1,603
27 Florida 1,572
28 District of Columbia 1,521
29 California 1,514
30 West Virginia 1,510
31 Missouri 1,466
32 Kentucky 1,405
33 Maryland 1,385
34 Montana 1,381
35 Wisconsin 1,262
36 Oklahoma 1,251
37 Minnesota 1,235
38 Virginia 1,218
39 Wyoming 1,211
40 Nebraska 1,183
41 North Carolina 1,164
42 Idaho 1,106
43 Colorado 1,075
44 New Hampshire 918
45 Washington 702
46 Puerto Rico 669
47 Utah 666
48 Oregon 576
49 Maine 554
50 Alaska 408
51 Vermont 366
52 Hawaii 327

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kentucky 5
2 Virginia 4
3 Montana 3
4 New York 3
5 Connecticut 2
6 Massachusetts 2
7 Michigan 2
8 Mississippi 2
9 Nevada 2
10 New Jersey 2
11 Ohio 2
12 Oregon 2
13 Tennessee 2
14 West Virginia 2
15 Alabama 1
16 Arkansas 1
17 California 1
18 District of Columbia 1
19 Florida 1
20 Idaho 1
21 Iowa 1
22 Maryland 1
23 New Mexico 1
24 North Carolina 1
25 Pennsylvania 1
26 Puerto Rico 1
27 Texas 1
28 Washington 1
29 Alaska 0
30 Arizona 0
31 Colorado 0
32 Delaware 0
33 Georgia 0
34 Hawaii 0
35 Illinois 0
36 Indiana 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Louisiana 0
39 Maine 0
40 Minnesota 0
41 Missouri 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 South Carolina 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 353,902 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 331,530 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,272 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 244,569 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 244,395 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 137,153 194 93
Richland South Carolina 106,482 1018 67
York South Carolina 103,275 1165 62
Orange California 84,121 2061 34
Pierce Washington 48,236 2900 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,506 1764 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,318 1994 36
York South Carolina 1,295 2025 35
Richland South Carolina 1,275 2044 34
Pierce Washington 681 2724 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons